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A. POPULATION
Sebago’s year-round population remained constant for a period of four decades beginning in 1920 and ending in 1960 (in 1920, there were 541 residents; in 1960 there were 546 residents). Between 1960 and 2000, the Town experienced a period of fairly rapid population growth, increasing in size from 546 people in 1960 to 1,433 people in 2000, for a gain of 887 people or 162%. The Town’s growth rate during this period was much greater than that of Cumberland County (45%) and the State (29%). Sebago’s historical growth patterns are shown in the chart below and are summarized in Table 1 which also shows figures for Cumberland County and the State.
Table 1 Population of Sebago, Cumberland County, And Maine 1920-2000
|
Year |
Sebago |
Cumberland County |
Maine |
1920 |
541 |
124,376 |
768,014 |
1930 |
470 |
134,645 |
797,423 |
1940 |
518 |
146,000 |
847,226 |
1950 |
577 |
169,201 |
914,950 |
1960 |
546 |
182,751 |
970,689 |
1970 |
708 |
192,528 |
992,048 |
1980 |
974 |
215,789 |
1,124,660 |
1990 |
1,259 |
243,135 |
1,227,928 |
2000 |
1,433 |
265,612 |
1,274,923 |
1970-80 change |
38% |
12% |
13% |
1980-90 change |
29% |
13% |
9% |
1990-00 change |
14% |
9% |
4% |
1960-00 change |
162% |
45% |
29% |
Source: U.S. Census
Factors contributing to Sebago’s growth between 1960 and 2000 include the national trend to migrate from urban to rural areas, the attractiveness of Sebago Lake and other Town lakes for residential development, and the relatively low cost of land. Seasonal fluctuations in population have had a major impact on the local economy, on housing, the Town’s fiscal capacity, traffic conditions and public services. A precise estimate of seasonal population is not available. However, the number of seasonal dwellings has declined, from 655 units in 1990 to 582 units in 2000, probably as a result of the conversion of some seasonal units to year-round use. Assuming an average of three persons per seasonal dwelling at peak times, the Town’s summer population could easily be double that of the
year-round population.
Comparative Population Change
Table 2 contains a summary of population changes over the past 30 years for Sebago and a number of nearby communities, as well as Cumberland County and the State. Despite the fact that Sebago’s 1970-80 growth rate (38%) was three times that of Cumberland County (12%), the rate was even higher in all other communities shown in the table except Baldwin (30%) and Bridgton (19%). Sebago’s growth rates were not as high during succeeding decades, but were still far above the rates for Cumberland County and the State.
Table 2 Comparative Population Change 1970 – 2000
|
|
1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
% Change 1970-80 |
% Change 1980-90 |
% Change 1990-00 |
Sebago |
708 |
974 |
1,259 |
1,433 |
38 |
29 |
14 |
Baldwin |
878 |
1,140 |
1,219 |
1,290 |
30 |
7 |
6 |
Bridgton |
2,967 |
3,528 |
4,307 |
4,883 |
19 |
22 |
13 |
Casco |
1,256 |
2,243 |
3,018 |
3,469 |
79 |
35 |
15 |
Denmark |
397 |
672 |
855 |
1,004 |
69 |
27 |
17 |
Hiram |
686 |
1,067 |
1,260 |
1,423 |
56 |
18 |
13 |
Naples |
956 |
1,833 |
2,860 |
3,274 |
92 |
56 |
14 |
Raymond |
1,328 |
2,251 |
3,311 |
4,299 |
70 |
47 |
30 |
Standish |
3,122 |
5,946 |
7,678 |
9,285 |
90 |
29 |
21 |
Windham |
6,593 |
11,282 |
13,020 |
14,904 |
71 |
15 |
14 |
Cumberland County |
192,528 |
215,789 |
243,135 |
265,612 |
12 |
13 |
9 |
Maine |
993,722 |
1,124,660 |
1,127,928 |
1,274,923 |
13 |
9 |
4 |
Source: U.S. Census, 1970, 1980, 1990
Age Distribution
Table 3 contains a summary of age distribution for Sebago, Cumberland County and the State for 2000. Sebago’s age distribution in the “under 5,” category (45%) is smaller than the other two jurisdictions (each 6%). The school age category, “5-17,” (19%) is slightly larger than Cumberland County and the State (both 18%). However, the “18-44” category, generally, the family formation and child bearing years (32%) is substantially smaller than that of Cumberland County (40%) and the State (46%). The “middle age” category (45-64) is larger (30%) than that of Cumberland County (24%), and is significantly larger than that of the State (16%). The “65 and over” category is somewhat larger (15%) than County and State percentages (13% and 14%,
respectively). Not surprisingly, according to the 2000 Census, the median age in Sebago (42.4 years) is much higher than the County and State medians (37.6 and 38.6 years, respectively).
Table 3 Population by Age Category, 2000
|
|
Sebago |
Cumberland County |
Maine |
|
# |
% |
# |
% |
# |
% |
Under 5 |
59 |
4 |
15,443 |
6 |
70,726 |
6 |
5-17 |
272 |
19 |
46,519 |
18 |
230,512 |
18 |
18-44 |
465 |
32 |
105,577 |
40 |
583,894 |
46 |
45-64 |
425 |
30 |
62,749 |
24 |
206,389 |
16 |
65 and over |
212 |
15 |
35,324 |
13 |
183,402 |
14 |
Total |
1,433 |
100 |
265,612 |
101 |
1,274,923 |
100 |
Source: U.S. Census, 2000
Table 4 provides an overview of how dramatically the Town’s population changed during the 1990-2000 decade. There were major losses in the “under 5” and “18-44” categories, and major gains in the “5-17”, “45-64” and “65 and over” categories.
Table 4 Sebago Population Growth by Age Category, 1990-2000
|
|
1990 |
2000 |
1990-2000 Change
|
|
# |
% |
# |
% |
# |
% |
Under 5 |
101 |
8 |
59 |
4 |
-42 |
-42 |
5-17 |
194 |
15 |
272 |
19 |
78 |
40 |
18-44 |
511 |
41 |
465 |
32 |
-46 |
-9 |
45-64 |
277 |
22 |
425 |
30 |
148 |
53 |
65 and over |
176 |
14 |
212 |
15 |
36 |
20 |
Total |
1,259 |
100 |
1,433 |
100 |
174 |
14 |
Source: US Census, 1990, 2000
Household Size
The average household size in Sebago (2.45) has been declining since 1980, as it has in Cumberland County, the State of Maine and all nearby comparison communities (see Table 5). In the year 2000, the number of persons per household in Sebago was slightly greater than at either the County or State level, but lower than all comparison communities except Denmark. In general a higher number of persons per household reflects a higher number of school age children in the general population.
Table 5 Comparative Household Size, 1980-2000
|
|
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
1990-2000 % change |
Sebago |
2.63 |
2.50 |
2.45 |
-7 |
Baldwin |
3.14 |
2.91 |
2.62 |
-10 |
Bridgton |
2.62 |
2.54 |
2.50 |
-5 |
Casco |
2.99 |
2.83 |
2.58 |
-9 |
Denmark |
2.56 |
2.70 |
2.41 |
-6 |
Hiram |
2.93 |
2.75 |
2.66 |
-3 |
Naples |
2.71 |
2.65 |
2.52 |
-7 |
Raymond |
2.94 |
2.85 |
2.66 |
-7 |
Standish |
3.07 |
2.91 |
2.72 |
-7 |
Windham |
2.97 |
2.73 |
2.58 |
-6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumberland County |
2.65 |
2.49 |
2.38 |
-4 |
Maine |
2.75 |
2.56 |
2.39 |
-6 |
Source: U.S. Census, 1980-2000
Household Type
Table 6 contains a summary of households by type for Sebago and the State of Maine, as shown in the 2000 Census. The percentage of family households in Sebago (70.7%) is higher than the State as a whole (65.7%). The percentage of married couple families in Sebago is significantly higher than the State figure (61.3% vs. 52.5%). The Town has a lower percentage of female householders (5.8% vs. 9.5%) as well as householders 65 years and over living alone (9.4% vs. 10.7%). There are no people in Sebago reported to be in group quarters.
Table 6 Household By Type 2000 |
|
Sebago |
Maine |
|
# |
% |
# |
% |
All Households |
584 |
100 |
518,200 |
100 |
Family Households |
413 |
70.7 |
340,685 |
65.7 |
Married couple Families |
358 |
61.3 |
272,152 |
52.5 |
Female Householder |
34 |
5.8 |
49,022 |
9.5 |
Non-Family Households |
171 |
29.3 |
177,515 |
34.3 |
Householder Living Alone |
131 |
22.4 |
139,969 |
27.0 |
Householder 65+ |
55 |
9.4 |
55,483 |
10.7 |
Persons in Households |
1,433 |
100 |
1,240,011 |
97.3 |
Persons in Group Quarters |
- |
- |
34,912 |
2.7 |
Institutionalized |
- |
- |
13,091 |
1.0 |
Other |
- |
- |
21,821 |
2.7 |
Source: U.S. Census, 2000
Educational Attainment
Based on 2000 Census data, the population of Sebago that is 25 years and older has had slightly more formal education than the population of Cumberland County and the State as a whole. Approximately 92% of the Town’s population had at least a high school diploma, and 22% had at least a bachelor’s degree.
Table 7 Educational Attainment 2000
|
|
Total # of Persons 25+ Years |
% High School Grad or Higher |
% Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
|
Sebago |
1,040 |
92% |
22% |
Cumberland County |
181,276 |
90% |
34% |
Maine |
869,893 |
85% |
23% |
Source: U.S. Census, 2000
Median Household Income and Poverty
Based on the 2000 Census, the median household income in Sebago ($40,391) is below that of Cumberland County ($44,048) but is above the State figure ($37,240). The percentage of the Town’s population living below the poverty level (4.0%) is lower than in the County (8.3%) or in Maine (7.8%).
Population Projections
In January of 2002, the State Planning Office released population projections by age category for every community in the State. These projections show continued declines in the “0-4” and “18-44” categories, continued, substantial increases in the “45-64” and “65+”categoriees, and modest growth in the “5-17” school age category.
Table 8 Town of Sebago Population Projections
|
Age Group |
2000 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
0-4 |
59 |
53 |
52 |
51 |
50 |
49 |
49 |
48 |
48 |
48 |
48 |
48 |
48 |
5-17 |
272 |
279 |
281 |
281 |
281 |
282 |
282 |
284 |
286 |
289 |
292 |
295 |
298 |
18-44 |
465 |
442 |
436 |
430 |
424 |
420 |
416 |
412 |
412 |
414 |
416 |
419 |
421 |
45-64 |
425 |
510 |
528 |
547 |
563 |
576 |
588 |
600 |
609 |
609 |
610 |
609 |
611 |
65+ |
212 |
221 |
223 |
224 |
225 |
231 |
235 |
240 |
244 |
254 |
262 |
270 |
281 |
Total |
1,433 |
1,505 |
1,520 |
1,533 |
1,543 |
1,558 |
1,570 |
1,584 |
1,599 |
1,614 |
1,628 |
1,641 |
1,659 |
Source: Maine State Planning Office
Table 9 shows how Sebago’s population is expected to change between the year 2005 and 2015, and the extent to which the older age categories will dominate the anticipated increases. Growth in the “45-64” and “65+” categories will account for most of the Town’s future growth. However, the overall composition of the population will not change as drastically as it did between 1990 and 2000.
Table 9 Sebago’s Population Growth, 2005-2015
|
|
2005 Population |
2015 Population |
Change, 2005-1015 |
|
# |
% |
# |
% |
# |
% Change |
Under 5 |
52 |
3 |
48 |
3 |
-4 |
-8 |
5-17 |
281 |
18 |
298 |
18 |
17 |
6 |
18-44 |
436 |
29 |
421 |
25 |
-15 |
-3 |
45-64 |
528 |
35 |
611 |
37 |
83 |
16 |
65+ |
223 |
15 |
281 |
17 |
58 |
26 |
Total |
1,520 |
100 |
1,659 |
100 |
139 |
9 |
Source: US Census, 2000 and Maine State Planning Office
The final table provides a comparison of Sebago’s projected future population with that of Cumberland County and the State of Maine in the year 2015. Sebago will have a much smaller percentage of its population in the “under 5” and “18-44” categories, and a much larger percentage in the “45-64” category. The percentage of people in the “65 and over” category will be a little larger than at the County level (15%), but the same as at the State level.
Table 10 Projected Population by Age Category, 2015
|
|
Sebago |
Cumberland County |
Maine |
|
# |
% |
# |
% |
# |
% |
Under 5 |
48 |
3 |
17,146 |
6 |
73,041 |
5 |
5-17 |
298 |
18 |
45,377 |
15 |
204,145 |
15 |
18-44 |
421 |
25 |
104,412 |
35 |
453,553 |
33 |
45-64 |
611 |
37 |
84,547 |
29 |
411,622 |
30 |
65 and over |
281 |
17 |
43,736 |
15 |
228,661 |
17 |
Total |
1,659 |
100 |
295,218 |
100 |
1,371,022 |
100 |
Source: Maine State Planning Office
Conclusions
The population data presented in this section has a number of planning implications for Sebago:
1. School facilities. School facilities should have sufficient capacity to meet the educational needs of the community over the next 10 years.
2. New housing units. The projected population increase (139 people) will result in a need for roughly 57-61 additional housing units, depending on whether household size stays the same or decreases by another seven percent. This projection may be too low. According to Town records, Sebago issued permits for 116 new dwellings (not counting replacements) between 2000 and late 2004. This rate of growth is almost identical to that documented by the Town for the 1990s (119 new units, not counting replacements). The bottom line is that Sebago is growing at a far faster rate than might be inferred from population projections prepared by the State Planning Office. If current construction trends continue, Sebago can expect to see
over 200 additional dwelling units between 2005 and 2015.
3. Affordable housing. Since most of the Town’s projected population growth will be in the “45-64” and “65+” categories, affordable housing will be less of a problem than would be the case if most of the growth were projected to be in the “18-44” category. It is reasonable to assume that people in the two older categories will have had more opportunity to accumulate equity and buying power than younger people, and thus will be better able to afford housing in Sebago. It is also likely that some of the Town’s projected growth will include people who currently own seasonal property in Sebago, and will retire to these homes and convert them to year-round use.
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