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Sebago Maine Town Seal
This table is used for column layout.
 
Population
A.  POPULATION

Sebago’s year-round population remained constant for a period of four decades beginning in 1920 and ending in 1960 (in 1920, there were 541 residents; in 1960 there were 546 residents).  Between 1960 and 2000, the Town experienced a period of fairly rapid population growth, increasing in size from 546 people in 1960 to 1,433 people in 2000, for a gain of 887 people or 162%. The Town’s growth rate during this period was much greater than that of Cumberland County (45%) and the State (29%). Sebago’s historical growth patterns are shown in the chart below and are summarized in Table 1 which also shows figures for Cumberland County and the State.




Table 1
Population of Sebago, Cumberland County, And Maine
1920-2000

Year
Sebago
Cumberland County
Maine
1920
541
124,376
768,014
1930
470
134,645
797,423
1940
518
146,000
847,226
1950
577
169,201
914,950
1960
546
182,751
970,689
1970
708
192,528
992,048
1980
974
215,789
1,124,660
1990
1,259
243,135
1,227,928
2000
1,433
265,612
1,274,923
1970-80 change
38%
12%
13%
1980-90 change
29%
13%
9%
1990-00 change
14%
9%
4%
1960-00 change
162%
45%
29%
        Source: U.S. Census

Factors contributing to Sebago’s growth between 1960 and 2000 include the national trend to migrate from urban to rural areas, the attractiveness of Sebago Lake and other Town lakes for residential development, and the relatively low cost of land.  Seasonal fluctuations in population have had a major impact on the local economy, on housing, the Town’s fiscal capacity, traffic conditions and public services.  A precise estimate of seasonal population is not available.  However, the number of seasonal dwellings has declined, from 655 units in 1990 to 582 units in 2000, probably as a result of the conversion of some seasonal units to year-round use.  Assuming an average of three persons per seasonal dwelling at peak times, the Town’s summer population could easily be double that of the year-round population.

Comparative Population Change

Table 2 contains a summary of population changes over the past 30 years for Sebago and a number of nearby communities, as well as Cumberland County and the State.  Despite the fact that Sebago’s 1970-80 growth rate (38%) was three times that of Cumberland County (12%), the rate was even higher in all other communities shown in the table except Baldwin (30%) and Bridgton (19%). Sebago’s growth rates were not as high during succeeding decades, but were still far above the rates for Cumberland County and the State.  



Table  2
Comparative Population Change  1970 – 2000

1970
1980
1990
2000
% Change
1970-80
% Change
1980-90
% Change
1990-00
Sebago
708
974
1,259
1,433
38
29
14
Baldwin
878
1,140
1,219
1,290
30
7
6
Bridgton
2,967
3,528
4,307
4,883
19
22
13
Casco
1,256
2,243
3,018
3,469
79
35
15
Denmark
397
672
855
1,004
69
27
17
Hiram
686
1,067
1,260
1,423
56
18
13
Naples
956
1,833
2,860
3,274
92
56
14
Raymond
1,328
2,251
3,311
4,299
70
47
30
Standish
3,122
5,946
7,678
9,285
90
29
21
Windham
6,593
11,282
13,020
14,904
71
15
14
Cumberland County
192,528
215,789
243,135
265,612
12
13
9
Maine
993,722
1,124,660
1,127,928
1,274,923
13
9
4
Source: U.S. Census, 1970, 1980, 1990

Age Distribution

Table 3 contains a summary of age distribution for Sebago, Cumberland County and the State for 2000.  Sebago’s age distribution in the “under 5,” category (45%) is smaller than the other two jurisdictions (each 6%).  The school age category, “5-17,” (19%) is slightly larger than Cumberland County and the State (both 18%).  However, the “18-44” category, generally, the family formation and child bearing years (32%) is substantially smaller than that of Cumberland County (40%) and the State (46%). The “middle age” category (45-64) is larger (30%) than that of Cumberland County (24%), and is significantly larger than that of the State (16%).  The “65 and over” category is somewhat larger (15%) than County and State percentages (13% and 14%, respectively). Not surprisingly, according to the 2000 Census, the median age in Sebago (42.4 years) is much higher than the County and State medians (37.6 and 38.6 years, respectively).




Table 3
Population by Age Category, 2000

Sebago
Cumberland County
Maine
#
%
#
%
#
%
Under 5
59
4
15,443
6
70,726
6
5-17
272
19
46,519
18
230,512
18
18-44
465
32
105,577
40
583,894
46
45-64
425
30
62,749
24
206,389
16
65 and over
212
15
35,324
13
183,402
14
Total
1,433
100
265,612
101
1,274,923
100
Source: U.S. Census, 2000


Table 4 provides an overview of how dramatically the Town’s population changed during the 1990-2000 decade.  There were major losses in the “under 5” and “18-44” categories, and major gains in the “5-17”, “45-64” and “65 and over” categories.



Table 4
Sebago Population Growth by Age Category, 1990-2000


1990

2000

1990-2000 Change

#
%
#
%
#
%
Under 5
101
8
59
4
-42
-42
5-17
194
15
272
19
78
40
18-44
511
41
465
32
-46
-9
45-64
277
22
425
30
148
53
65 and over
176
14
212
15
36
20
Total
1,259
100
1,433
100
174
14
Source: US Census, 1990, 2000


Household Size

The average household size in Sebago (2.45) has been declining since 1980, as it has in Cumberland County, the State of Maine and all nearby comparison communities (see Table 5). In the year 2000, the number of persons per household in Sebago was slightly greater than at either the County or State level, but lower than all comparison communities except Denmark. In general a higher number of persons per household reflects a higher number of school age children in the general population.







Table 5
Comparative Household Size, 1980-2000

1980
1990
2000
1990-2000 % change
Sebago
2.63
2.50
2.45
-7
Baldwin
3.14
2.91
2.62
-10
Bridgton
2.62
2.54
2.50
-5
Casco
2.99
2.83
2.58
-9
Denmark
2.56
2.70
2.41
-6
Hiram
2.93
2.75
2.66
-3
Naples
2.71
2.65
2.52
-7
Raymond
2.94
2.85
2.66
-7
Standish
3.07
2.91
2.72
-7
Windham
2.97
2.73
2.58
-6
Cumberland County
2.65
2.49
2.38
-4
Maine
2.75
2.56
2.39
-6
Source: U.S. Census, 1980-2000

Household Type

Table 6 contains a summary of households by type for Sebago and the State of Maine, as shown in the 2000 Census.  The percentage of family households in Sebago (70.7%) is higher than the State as a whole (65.7%). The percentage of married couple families in Sebago is significantly higher than the State figure (61.3% vs. 52.5%).  The Town has a lower percentage of female householders (5.8% vs. 9.5%) as well as householders 65 years and over living alone (9.4% vs. 10.7%).  There are no people in Sebago reported to be in group quarters.



Table 6
Household By Type 2000

Sebago

Maine
#
%
#
%
All Households
584
100
518,200
100
Family Households
413
70.7
340,685
65.7
 Married couple Families
358
61.3
272,152
52.5
 Female Householder
34
5.8
49,022
9.5
Non-Family Households   
171
29.3
177,515
34.3
  Householder Living Alone
131
22.4
139,969
27.0
  Householder 65+
55
9.4
55,483
10.7
Persons in Households
1,433
100
1,240,011
97.3
Persons in Group Quarters
-
-
34,912
2.7
  Institutionalized
-
-
13,091
1.0
  Other
-
-
21,821
2.7
Source: U.S. Census, 2000
Educational Attainment

Based on 2000 Census data, the population of Sebago that is 25 years and older has had slightly more formal education than the population of Cumberland County and the State as a whole.  Approximately 92% of the Town’s population had at least a high school diploma, and 22% had at least a bachelor’s degree.



Table 7
Educational Attainment  2000

Total # of Persons
25+ Years
% High School Grad
or Higher
% Bachelor’s Degree
or Higher

Sebago
1,040
92%
22%
Cumberland County
181,276
90%
34%
Maine
869,893
85%
23%
Source: U.S. Census, 2000

Median Household Income and Poverty

Based on the 2000 Census, the median household income in Sebago ($40,391) is below that of Cumberland County ($44,048) but is above the State figure ($37,240). The percentage of the Town’s population living below the poverty level (4.0%) is lower than in the County (8.3%) or in Maine (7.8%).

Population Projections

In January of 2002, the State Planning Office released population projections by age category for every community in the State.  These projections show continued declines in the “0-4” and “18-44” categories, continued, substantial increases in the “45-64” and “65+”categoriees, and modest growth in the “5-17” school age category.



Table 8
Town of Sebago Population Projections

Age Group

2000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015
0-4
59
53
52
51
50
49
49
48
48
48
48
48
48
5-17
272
279
281
281
281
282
282
284
286
289
292
295
298
18-44
465
442
436
430
424
420
416
412
412
414
416
419
421
45-64
425
510
528
547
563
576
588
600
609
609
610
609
611
65+
212
221
223
224
225
231
235
240
244
254
262
270
281
Total
1,433
1,505
1,520
1,533
1,543
1,558
1,570
1,584
1,599
1,614
1,628
1,641
1,659
Source: Maine State Planning Office
Table 9 shows how Sebago’s population is expected to change between the year 2005 and 2015, and the extent to which the older age categories will dominate the anticipated increases.  Growth in the “45-64” and “65+” categories will account for most of the Town’s future growth.  However, the overall composition of the population will not change as drastically as it did between 1990 and 2000.



Table 9
Sebago’s Population Growth, 2005-2015

2005 Population
2015 Population
Change, 2005-1015
#
%
#
%
#
% Change
Under 5
52
3
48
3
-4
-8
5-17
281
18
298
18
17
6
18-44
436
29
421
25
-15
-3
45-64
528
35
611
37
83
16
65+
223
15
281
17
58
26
Total
1,520
100
1,659
100
139
9
Source: US Census, 2000 and Maine State Planning Office

The final table provides a comparison of Sebago’s projected future population with that of Cumberland County and the State of Maine in the year 2015.  Sebago will have a much smaller percentage of its population in the “under 5” and “18-44” categories, and a much larger percentage in the “45-64” category.  The percentage of people in the “65 and over” category will be a little larger than at the County level (15%), but the same as at the State level.


Table 10
Projected Population by Age Category, 2015

Sebago
Cumberland County
Maine
#
%
#
%
#
%
Under 5
48
3
17,146
6
73,041
5
5-17
298
18
45,377
15
204,145
15
18-44
421
25
104,412
35
453,553
33
45-64
611
37
84,547
29
411,622
30
65 and over
281
17
43,736
15
228,661
17
Total
1,659
100
295,218
100
1,371,022
100
Source: Maine State Planning Office

Conclusions

The population data presented in this section has a number of planning implications for Sebago:

1.      School facilities.  School facilities should have sufficient capacity to meet the educational needs of the community over the next 10 years.

2.      New housing units. The projected population increase (139 people) will result in a need for roughly 57-61 additional housing units, depending on whether household size stays the same or decreases by another seven percent.  This projection may be too low.  According to Town records, Sebago issued permits for 116 new dwellings (not counting replacements) between 2000 and late 2004. This rate of growth is almost identical to that documented by the Town for the 1990s (119 new units, not counting replacements).  The bottom line is that Sebago is growing at a far faster rate than might be inferred from population projections prepared by the State Planning Office.  If current construction trends continue, Sebago can expect to see over 200 additional dwelling units between 2005 and 2015.

3.      Affordable housing.  Since most of the Town’s projected population growth will be in the “45-64” and “65+” categories, affordable housing will be less of a problem than would be the case if most of the growth were projected to be in the “18-44” category. It is reasonable to assume that people in the two older categories will have had more opportunity to accumulate equity and buying power than younger people, and thus will be better able to afford housing in Sebago.  It is also likely that some of the Town’s projected growth will include people who currently own seasonal property in Sebago, and will retire to these homes and convert them to year-round use.